System dynamics simulation for evaluating implementation strategies of genomic sequencing: tutorial and conceptual model.

INTRODUCTION: Precision Medicine (PM), especially in oncology, involve diagnostic and complex treatment pathways that are based on genomic features. To conduct evaluation and decision analysis for PM, advanced modeling techniques are needed due to its complexity. Although System Dynamics (SD) has strong modeling power, it has not been widely used in PM and individualized treatment. AREAS COVERED: We explained SD tools using examples in cancer context and the rationale behind using SD for genomic testing and personalized oncology. We compared SD with other Dynamic Simulation Modelling (DSM) methods and listed SD's advantages. We developed a conceptual model using Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) for strategic decision-making in Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) implementation. EXPERT OPINION: The paper demonstrates that SD is well-suited for health policy evaluation challenges and has useful tools for modeling precision oncology and genomic testing. SD's system-oriented modeling captures dynamic and complex interactions within systems using feedback loops. SD models are simple to implement, utilize less data and computational resources, and conduct both exploratory and explanatory analyses over time. If the targeted system has complex interactions and many components, deals with lack of data, and requires interpretability and clinicians' input, SD offers attractive advantages for modeling and evaluating scenarios.

Development of a microcosting protocol to determine the economic cost of diagnostic genomic testing for rare diseases in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Genomic testing is a relatively new, disruptive and complex health technology with multiple clinical applications in rare diseases, cancer and infection control. Genomic testing is increasingly being implemented into clinical practice, following regulatory approval, funding and adoption in models of care, particularly in the area of rare disease diagnosis. A significant barrier to the adoption and implementation of genomic testing is funding. What remains unclear is what the cost of genomic testing is, what the underlying drivers of cost are and whether policy differences contribute to cost variance in different jurisdictions, such as the requirement to have staff with a medical license involved in testing. This costing study will be useful in future economic evaluations and health technology assessments to inform optimal levels of reimbursement and to support comprehensive and comparable assessment of healthcare resource utilisation in the delivery of genomic testing globally. METHODS: A framework is presented that focuses on uncovering the process of genomic testing for any given laboratory, evaluating its utilisation and unit costs, and modelling the cost drivers and overall expenses associated with delivering genomic testing. The goal is to aid in refining and implementing policies regarding both the regulation and funding of genomic testing. A process-focused (activity-based) methodology is outlined, which encompasses resources, assesses individual cost components through a combination of bottom-up and top-down microcosting techniques and allows disaggregation of resource type and process step. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The outputs of the study will be reported at relevant regional genetics and health economics conferences, as well as submitted to a peer-reviewed journal focusing on genomics. Human research ethics committee approval is not required for this microcosting study. This study does not involve research on human subjects, and all data used in the analysis are either publicly available.

Cost Analysis of Orthoptist-Led Neurofibromatosis Type 1 Screening Clinics.

Purpose: To conduct a costing study comparing orthoptist-led with consultant-led clinics screening for optic pathway gliomas (OPGs) in children with neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1) attending the Royal Children's Hospital (RCH), Melbourne. Methods: Patients with NF1 examined in the orthoptist-led NF1 screening clinic and/or consultant-led clinics during the study period were identified. The workflow management software Q-Flow 6® provided data documenting patient's time spent with the orthoptist, nurse, and ophthalmologist. Time points were converted into minutes and multiplied by the cost-per-minute for each profession. A bottom-up micro-costing approach was used to estimate appointment level costs. Bootstrap simulations with 1000 replications were used to estimate 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the difference in mean appointment time and cost between clinics. Results: Data for 130 consultant-led clinic appointments and 234 orthoptist-led clinic appointments were extracted for analysis. The mean time per appointment for the consultant-led clinic was 45.11 minutes, and the mean time per appointment for the orthoptist-led clinic was 25.85 minutes. The mean cost per appointment for the consultant-led clinic was A $84.15 (GBP £39.60) compared to the orthoptist-led clinic at A $20.40 (GBP £9.60). This represents a mean reduction of 19.25 minutes per appointment (95% CI, -24.85 to -13.66) and a mean reduction of A $63.75 (GBP £30.00) per appointment (95% CI, (A $-75.40 to $-52.10 [GBP £ -35.48 to £ -24.52]). Conclusion: An orthoptist-led clinic screening for OPGs in patients with NF1 can be a more cost-efficient model of care for ophthalmic screening in this patient group.

Australian Genomics: Outcomes of a 5-year national program to accelerate the integration of genomics in healthcare.

Australian Genomics is a national collaborative partnership of more than 100 organizations piloting a whole-of-system approach to integrating genomics into healthcare, based on federation principles. In the first five years of operation, Australian Genomics has evaluated the outcomes of genomic testing in more than 5,200 individuals across 19 rare disease and cancer flagship studies. Comprehensive analyses of the health economic, policy, ethical, legal, implementation and workforce implications of incorporating genomics in the Australian context have informed evidence-based change in policy and practice, resulting in national government funding and equity of access for a range of genomic tests. Simultaneously, Australian Genomics has built national skills, infrastructure, policy, and data resources to enable effective data sharing to drive discovery research and support improvements in clinical genomic delivery.

Microcosting diagnostic genomic sequencing: A systematic review.

PURPOSE: Microcosting can provide valuable economic evidence to inform the translation of genomic sequencing to clinical practice. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify studies employing microcosting methods to estimate the cost of genomic sequencing to diagnose cancer and rare diseases. METHODS: Four electronic databases, Medline, Embase, EconLit, and Cumulated Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature were searched. Reference lists of identified studies were also searched. Studies were included if they had estimated the cost of genome sequencing or exome sequencing for cancer or rare disease diagnosis using microcosting methods. RESULTS: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Cost estimates for genome sequencing and exome sequencing ranged between US$2094 and $9706 and US$716 and $4817 per patient, respectively. All studies disaggregated resource use and cost inputs into labor, equipment, and consumables, with consumables being the main cost component. Considerable differences in the level of detail used to report the steps and resources used in each of the sequencing steps limited study comparisons. CONCLUSION: Defining a standard microcosting methodology is challenging because of the heterogeneous nature of genomic sequencing. Reporting of detailed and complete sequencing procedures, inclusion of sensitivity analyses and clear justifications of resource use, and measurement of unit costs can improve comparability, transferability, and generalizability of study findings.

New evidence on the impact of the Great Recession on health-compromising behaviours.

Using data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing over the period 2004-2017, this paper explores the effects of the Great Recession and its aftermath upon health-compromising behaviours in adults aged 50 and over. We introduce new techniques into this area of research, namely dynamic random-effects logit estimators which control for initial conditions and correlated individual effects. We observe a lack of crisis effect upon the probabilities of smoking and being physically inactive, as well as of transitioning in and out of these behaviours. In line with other recent literature, this suggests that the relationship between economic recessions and smoking and physical inactivity may have broken down. Alternatively, the over 50s may have been protected from the crisis and subsequent austerity measures. Nonetheless, both the crisis and post-crisis period were associated with a lower probability of drinking frequently.

Progesterone to prevent miscarriage in women with early pregnancy bleeding: the PRISM RCT.

BACKGROUND: Progesterone is essential for a healthy pregnancy. Several small trials have suggested that progesterone therapy may rescue a pregnancy in women with early pregnancy bleeding, which is a symptom that is strongly associated with miscarriage. OBJECTIVES: (1) To assess the effects of vaginal micronised progesterone in women with vaginal bleeding in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. (2) To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of progesterone in women with early pregnancy bleeding. DESIGN: A multicentre, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised trial of progesterone in women with early pregnancy vaginal bleeding. SETTING: A total of 48 hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 16-39 years with early pregnancy bleeding. INTERVENTIONS: Women aged 16-39 years were randomly assigned to receive twice-daily vaginal suppositories containing either 400 mg of progesterone or a matched placebo from presentation to 16 weeks of gestation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was live birth at ≥ 34 weeks. In addition, a within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from an NHS and NHS/Personal Social Services perspective. RESULTS: A total of 4153 women from 48 hospitals in the UK received either progesterone (n = 2079) or placebo (n = 2074). The follow-up rate for the primary outcome was 97.2% (4038 out of 4153 participants). The live birth rate was 75% (1513 out of 2025 participants) in the progesterone group and 72% (1459 out of 2013 participants) in the placebo group (relative rate 1.03, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.07; p = 0.08). A significant subgroup effect (interaction test p = 0.007) was identified for prespecified subgroups by the number of previous miscarriages: none (74% in the progesterone group vs. 75% in the placebo group; relative rate 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.95 to 1.04; p = 0.72); one or two (76% in the progesterone group vs. 72% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.05, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.12; p = 0.07); and three or more (72% in the progesterone group vs. 57% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.51; p = 0.004). A significant post hoc subgroup effect (interaction test p = 0.01) was identified in the subgroup of participants with early pregnancy bleeding and any number of previous miscarriage(s) (75% in the progesterone group vs. 70% in the placebo group; relative rate 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.15; p = 0.003). There were no significant differences in the rate of adverse events between the groups. The results of the health economics analysis show that progesterone was more costly than placebo (£7655 vs. £7572), with a mean cost difference of £83 (adjusted mean difference £76, 95% confidence interval -£559 to £711) between the two arms. Thus, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of progesterone compared with placebo was estimated as £3305 per additional live birth at ≥ 34 weeks of gestation. CONCLUSIONS: Progesterone therapy in the first trimester of pregnancy did not result in a significantly higher rate of live births among women with threatened miscarriage overall, but an important subgroup effect was identified. A conclusion on the cost-effectiveness of the PRISM trial would depend on the amount that society is willing to pay to increase the chances of an additional live birth at ≥ 34 weeks. For future work, we plan to conduct an individual participant data meta-analysis using all existing data sets. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN14163439, EudraCT 2014-002348-42 and Integrated Research Application System (IRAS) 158326. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 33. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Miscarriage is a common complication of pregnancy that affects one in five pregnancies. Several small studies have suggested that progesterone, a hormone essential for maintaining a pregnancy, may reduce the risk of miscarriage in women presenting with early pregnancy bleeding. This research was undertaken to test whether or not progesterone given to pregnant women with early pregnancy bleeding would increase the number of live births when compared with placebo (dummy treatment). The women participating in the study had an equal chance of receiving progesterone or placebo, as determined by a computer; one group received progesterone (400 mg twice daily as vaginal pessaries) and the other group received placebo with an identical appearance. Treatment began when women presented with vaginal bleeding, were < 12 weeks of gestation and were found to have at least a pregnancy sac on an ultrasound scan. Treatment was stopped at 16 weeks of gestation, or earlier if the pregnancy ended before 16 weeks. Neither the participants nor their health-care professionals knew which treatment was being received. In total, 23,775 women were screened and 4153 women were randomised to receive either progesterone or placebo pessaries. Altogether, 2972 participants had a live birth after at least 34 weeks of gestation. Overall, the live birth rate in the progesterone group was 75% (1513 out of 2025 participants), compared with 72% (1459 out of 2013 participants) in the placebo group. Although the live birth rate was 3% higher in the progesterone group than in the placebo group, there was statistical uncertainty about this finding. However, it was observed that women with a history of one or more previous miscarriages and vaginal bleeding in their current pregnancy may benefit from progesterone. For women with no previous miscarriages, our analysis showed that the live birth rate was 74% (824 out of 1111 participants) in the progesterone group compared with 75% (840 out of 1127 participants) in the placebo group. For women with one or more previous miscarriages, the live birth rate was 75% (689 out of 914 participants) in the progesterone group compared with 70% (619 out of 886 participants) in the placebo group. The potential benefit appeared to be most strong for women with three or more previous miscarriages, who had a live birth rate of 72% (98 out of 137 participants) in the progesterone group compared with 57% (85 out of 148 participants) in the placebo group. Treatment with progesterone did not appear to have any negative effects.

Antibiotic prophylaxis in the surgical management of miscarriage in low-income countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis of the AIMS trial.

BACKGROUND: There is ongoing debate on the clinical benefits of antibiotic prophylaxis for reducing pelvic infection after miscarriage surgery. We aimed to study the cost-effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis in the surgical management of miscarriage in low-income countries. METHODS: We did an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis using data from 3412 women recruited to the AIMS trial, a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to evaluate the effectiveness of antibiotic prophylaxis in the surgical management of miscarriage in Malawi, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Economic evaluation was done from a health-care-provider perspective on the basis of the outcome of cost per pelvic infection avoided within 2 weeks of surgery. Pelvic infection was broadly defined by the presence of clinical features or the clinically identified need to administer antibiotics. We used non-parametric bootstrapping and multilevel random effects models to estimate incremental mean costs and outcomes. Decision uncertainty was shown via cost-effectiveness acceptability frontiers. The AIMS trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN97143849. FINDINGS: Between June 2, 2014, and April 26, 2017, 3412 women were assigned to receive either antibiotic prophylaxis (1705 [50%] of 3412) or placebo (1707 [50%] of 3412) in the AIMS trial. 158 (5%) of 3412 women developed pelvic infection within 2 weeks of surgery, of whom 68 (43%) were in the antibiotic prophylaxis group and 90 (57%) in the placebo group. There is 97-98% probability that antibiotic prophylaxis is a cost-effective intervention at expected thresholds of willingness-to-pay per additional pelvic infection avoided. In terms of post-surgery antibiotics, the antibiotic prophylaxis group was US$0·27 (95% CI -0·49 to -0·05) less expensive per woman than the placebo group. A secondary analysis, a sensitivity analysis, and all subgroup analyses supported these findings. Antibiotic prophylaxis, if implemented routinely before miscarriage surgery, could translate to an annual total cost saving of up to $1·4 million across the four participating countries and up to $8·5 million across the two regions of sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. INTERPRETATION: Antibiotic prophylaxis is more effective and less expensive than no antibiotic prophylaxis. Policy makers in various settings should be confident that antibiotic prophylaxis in miscarriage surgery is cost-effective. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, and the UK Department for International Development.

A cost-effectiveness model of genetic testing and periodical clinical screening for the evaluation of families with dilated cardiomyopathy.

PURPOSE: To assess the relative cost-effectiveness of cascade genetic testing in asymptomatic relatives of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) compared with periodical clinical surveillance. METHODS: A decision-analytic model, combining a decision tree and a Markov model, was used to determine the lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for the two strategies. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess the robustness of findings and to explore decision uncertainty. RESULTS: The incremental cost per additional QALY of cascade genetic testing prior to periodical clinical surveillance of first-degree relatives compared with periodical clinical surveillance alone was estimated at approximately AUD $6100. At established thresholds of cost-effectiveness, there is a 90% probability that cascade genetic testing is cost-effective. Extensive sensitivity analyses, including the addition of second-degree relatives, did not alter the conclusions drawn from the main analysis. CONCLUSION: Using cascade genetic testing to guide clinical surveillance of asymptomatic relatives of patients with DCM is very likely to be cost-effective. As the DCM pathogenic variant detection rate rises and new evidence for personalized treatment of at-risk individuals becomes available, the cost-effectiveness of cascade testing will further increase.

A Randomized Trial of Progesterone in Women with Bleeding in Early Pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding in early pregnancy is strongly associated with pregnancy loss. Progesterone is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. Several small trials have suggested that progesterone therapy may improve pregnancy outcomes in women who have bleeding in early pregnancy. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate progesterone, as compared with placebo, in women with vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy. Women were randomly assigned to receive vaginal suppositories containing either 400 mg of progesterone or matching placebo twice daily, from the time at which they presented with bleeding through 16 weeks of gestation. The primary outcome was the birth of a live-born baby after at least 34 weeks of gestation. The primary analysis was performed in all participants for whom data on the primary outcome were available. A sensitivity analysis of the primary outcome that included all the participants was performed with the use of multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: A total of 4153 women, recruited at 48 hospitals in the United Kingdom, were randomly assigned to receive progesterone (2079 women) or placebo (2074 women). The percentage of women with available data for the primary outcome was 97% (4038 of 4153 women). The incidence of live births after at least 34 weeks of gestation was 75% (1513 of 2025 women) in the progesterone group and 72% (1459 of 2013 women) in the placebo group (relative rate, 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.07; P = 0.08). The sensitivity analysis, in which missing primary outcome data were imputed, resulted in a similar finding (relative rate, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.07; P = 0.08). The incidence of adverse events did not differ significantly between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among women with bleeding in early pregnancy, progesterone therapy administered during the first trimester did not result in a significantly higher incidence of live births than placebo. (Funded by the United Kingdom National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment program; PRISM Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN14163439.).

A Randomized Trial of Prophylactic Antibiotics for Miscarriage Surgery.

BACKGROUND: Surgical intervention is needed in some cases of spontaneous abortion to remove retained products of conception. Antibiotic prophylaxis may reduce the risk of pelvic infection, which is an important complication of this surgery, particularly in low-resource countries. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial investigating whether antibiotic prophylaxis before surgery to complete a spontaneous abortion would reduce pelvic infection among women and adolescents in low-resource countries. We randomly assigned patients to a single preoperative dose of 400 mg of oral doxycycline and 400 mg of oral metronidazole or identical placebos. The primary outcome was pelvic infection within 14 days after surgery. Pelvic infection was defined by the presence of two or more of four clinical features (purulent vaginal discharge, pyrexia, uterine tenderness, and leukocytosis) or by the presence of one of these features and the clinically identified need to administer antibiotics. The definition of pelvic infection was changed before the unblinding of the data; the original strict definition was two or more of the clinical features, without reference to the administration of antibiotics. RESULTS: We enrolled 3412 patients in Malawi, Pakistan, Tanzania, and Uganda. A total of 1705 patients were assigned to receive antibiotics and 1707 to receive placebo. The risk of pelvic infection was 4.1% (68 of 1676 pregnancies) in the antibiotics group and 5.3% (90 of 1684 pregnancies) in the placebo group (risk ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.04; P = 0.09). Pelvic infection according to original strict criteria was diagnosed in 1.5% (26 of 1700 pregnancies) and 2.6% (44 of 1704 pregnancies), respectively (risk ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.37 to 0.96). There were no significant between-group differences in adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic prophylaxis before miscarriage surgery did not result in a significantly lower risk of pelvic infection, as defined by pragmatic broad criteria, than placebo. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and others; AIMS Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN97143849.).

Prophylactic antibiotics to reduce pelvic infection in women having miscarriage surgery - The AIMS (Antibiotics in Miscarriage Surgery) trial: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The estimated annual global burden of miscarriage is 33 million out of 210 million pregnancies. Many women undergoing miscarriage have surgery to remove pregnancy tissues, resulting in miscarriage surgery being one of the most common operations performed in hospitals in low-income countries. Infection is a serious consequence and can result in serious illness and death. In low-income settings, the infection rate following miscarriage surgery has been reported to be high. Good quality evidence on the use of prophylactic antibiotics for surgical miscarriage management is not available. Given that miscarriage surgery is common, and infective complications are frequent and serious, prophylactic antibiotics may offer a simple and affordable intervention to improve outcomes. METHODS: Eligible patients will be approached once the diagnosis of miscarriage has been made according to local practice. Once informed consent has been given, participants will be randomly allocated using a secure internet facility (1:1 ratio) to a single dose of oral doxycycline (400 mg) and metronidazole (400 mg) or placebo. Allocation will be concealed to both the patient and the healthcare providers. A total of 3400 women will be randomised, 1700 in each arm. The medication will be given approximately 2 hours before surgery, which will be provided according to local practice. The primary outcome is pelvic infection 2 weeks after surgery. Women will be invited to the hospital for a clinical assessment at 2 weeks. Secondary outcomes include overall antibiotic use, individual components of the primary outcome, death, hospital admission, unplanned consultations, blood transfusion, vomiting, diarrhoea, adverse events, anaphylaxis and allergy, duration of clinical symptoms, and days before return to usual activities. An economic evaluation will be performed to determine if prophylactic antibiotics are cost-effective. DISCUSSION: This trial will assess whether a single dose of doxycycline (400 mg) and metronidazole (400 mg) taken orally 2 hours before miscarriage surgery can reduce the incidence of pelvic infection in women up to 2 weeks after miscarriage surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered with the ISRCTN (international standard randomised controlled trial number) registry: ISRCTN 97143849 . (Registered on April 17, 2013).

Cost-Effectiveness of Treatments for the Management of Bone Metastases: A Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: Metastatic cancers occur when cancer cells break away from the primary tumour. One of the most common sites of metastasis is the bone, with several therapeutic options currently available for managing bone metastases. In a resource-constrained environment, policy makers and practitioners need to know which options are cost effective. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this systematic review was to review and appraise published economic evaluations on treatments for the management of bone metastases. METHODS: We searched eight bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process, EMBASE, CSDR, DARE, HTA, EED and CPCI) for relevant economic evaluations published from each database's inception date until March 2017. Study selection, quality assessment and data extraction were carried out according to published guidelines. RESULTS: Twenty-four relevant economic analyses were identified. Seventeen of these studies focused on bone metastases resulting from a particular type of cancer, i.e. prostate (n = 8), breast (n = 7), lung (n = 1) or renal (n = 1), while seven report results for various primary tumours. Across types of cancer, evidence suggests that bisphosphonates result in lower morbidity and improved quality of life, for an additional cost, which is typically below conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds. While denosumab leads to health gains compared with zoledronic acid, it also results in substantial additional costs and is unlikely to represent value for money. The limited literature on the radiopharmaceutical strontium-89 (Sr89) and external beam radiotherapy (EBR) suggest that these treatments are cost effective compared with no treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The reviewed evidence suggests that bisphosphonate treatments are cost-effective options for bone metastases, while denosumab is unlikely to represent value for money. Evidence on EBR and Sr89 is limited and less conclusive.

Cost-effectiveness of zoledronic acid and strontium-89 as bone protecting treatments in addition to chemotherapy in patients with metastatic castrate-refractory prostate cancer: results from the TRAPEZE trial (ISRCTN 12808747).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of adding zoledronic acid or strontium-89 to standard docetaxel chemotherapy for patients with castrate-refractory prostate cancer (CRPC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on resource use and quality of life for 707 patients collected prospectively in the TRAPEZE 2 × 2 factorial randomised trial (ISRCTN 12808747) were used to assess the cost-effectiveness of i) zoledronic acid versus no zoledronic acid (ZA vs. no ZA), and ii) strontium-89 versus no strontium-89 (Sr89 vs. no Sr89). Costs were estimated from the perspective of the National Health Service in the UK and included expenditures for trial treatments, concomitant medications, and use of related hospital and primary care services. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated according to patients' responses to the generic EuroQol EQ-5D-3L instrument, which evaluates health status. Results are expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. RESULTS: The per-patient cost for ZA was £12 667, £251 higher than the equivalent cost in the no ZA group. Patients in the ZA group had on average 0.03 QALYs more than their counterparts in no ZA group. The ICER for this comparison was £8 005. Sr89 was associated with a cost of £13 230, £1365 higher than no Sr89, and a gain of 0.08 QALYs compared to no Sr89. The ICER for Sr89 was £16 884. The probabilities of ZA and Sr89 being cost-effective were 0.64 and 0.60, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of bone-targeting treatments to standard chemotherapy led to a small improvement in QALYs for a modest increase in cost (or cost-savings). ZA and Sr89 resulted in ICERs below conventional willingness-to-pay per QALY thresholds, suggesting that their addition to chemotherapy may represent a cost-effective use of resources.

TRAPEZE: a randomised controlled trial of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of chemotherapy with zoledronic acid, strontium-89, or both, in men with bony metastatic castration-refractory prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Bony metastatic castration-refractory prostate cancer is associated with a poor prognosis and high morbidity. TRAPEZE was a two-by-two factorial randomised controlled trial of zoledronic acid (ZA) and strontium-89 (Sr-89), each combined with docetaxel. All have palliative benefits, are used to control bone symptoms and are used with docetaxel to prolong survival. ZA, approved on the basis of reducing skeletal-related events (SREs), is commonly combined with docetaxel in practice, although evidence of efficacy and cost-effectiveness is lacking. Sr-89, approved for controlling metastatic pain and reducing need for subsequent bone treatments, is generally palliatively used in patients unfit for chemotherapy. Phase II analysis confirmed the safety and feasibility of combining these agents. TRAPEZE aimed to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of each agent. METHODS: Patients were randomised to receive six cycles of docetaxel plus prednisolone: alone, with ZA, with a single Sr-89 dose after cycle 6, or with both. Primary outcomes were clinical progression-free survival (CPFS: time to pain progression, SRE or death) and cost-effectiveness. Secondary outcomes were SRE-free interval (SREFI), total SREs, overall survival (OS) and quality of life (QoL). Log-rank test and Cox regression modelling were used to determine clinical effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness was assessed from the NHS perspective and expressed as cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). An additional analysis was carried out for ZA to reflect the availability of generic ZA. PATIENTS: 757 randomised (median age 68.7 years; Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group scale score 0, 40%; 1, 52%; 2, 8%; prior radiotherapy, 45%); median prostate-specific antigen 143.78 ng/ml (interquartile range 50.8-353.9 ng/ml). Stratified log-rank analysis of CPFS was statistically non-significant for either agent (Sr-89, p = 0.11; ZA, p = 0.45). Cox regression analysis adjusted for stratification variables showed CPFS benefit for Sr-89 [hazard ratio (HR) 0.845, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72 to 0.99; p = 0.036] and confirmed no effect of ZA (p = 0.46). ZA showed a significant SREFI effect (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.63 to 0.93; p = 0.008). Neither agent affected OS (Sr-89, p = 0.74; ZA, p = 0.91), but both increased total cost (vs. no ZA and no Sr-89, respectively); decreased post-trial therapies partly offset costs [net difference: Sr-89 £1341; proprietary ZA (Zometa(®), East Hanover, NJ, USA) £1319; generic ZA £251]. QoL was maintained in all trial arms; Sr-89 (0.08 additional QALYs) and ZA (0.03 additional QALYs) showed slight improvements. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for Sr-89 was £16,590, with £42,047 per QALY for Zometa and £8005 per QALY for generic ZA. CONCLUSION: Strontium-89 improved CPFS, but not OS. ZA did not improve CPFS or OS but significantly improved SREFI, mostly post progression, suggesting a role as post-chemotherapy maintenance therapy. QoL was well maintained in all treatment arms, with differing patterns of care resulting from the effects of Sr-89 on time to progression and ZA on SREFI and total SREs. The addition of Sr-89 resulted in additional cost and a small positive increase in QALYs, with an ICER below the £20,000 ceiling per QALY. The additional costs and small positive QALY changes in favour of ZA resulted in ICERs of £42,047 (Zometa) and £8005 for the generic alternative; thus, generic ZA represents a cost-effective option. Additional analyses on the basis of data from the Hospital Episode Statistics data set would allow corroborating the findings of this study. Further research into the use of ZA (and other bone-targeting therapies) with newer prostate cancer therapies would be desirable. STUDY REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN12808747. FUNDING: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 53. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Clinical Outcomes and Survival Following Treatment of Metastatic Castrate-Refractory Prostate Cancer With Docetaxel Alone or With Strontium-89, Zoledronic Acid, or Both: The TRAPEZE Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Bony metastatic castrate-refractory prostate cancer (CRPC) has a poor prognosis and high morbidity. Zoledronic acid (ZA) is commonly combined with docetaxel in practice but lacks evidence that combining is effective, and strontium-89 (Sr89) is generally used palliatively in patients unfit for chemotherapy. Phase 2 analysis of the TRAPEZE trial confirmed combining the agents was safe and feasible, and the objectives of phase 3 include assessment of the treatments on survival. OBJECTIVE: To determine clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of combining docetaxel, ZA, and Sr89, all having palliative benefits and used in bony metastatic CRPC to control bone symptoms and, for docetaxel, to prolong survival. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The TRAPEZE trial is a 2 × 2 factorial trial comparing docetaxel alone or with ZA, Sr89, or both. A cohort of 757 participants were recruited between February 2005 and February 2012 from hospitals in the United Kingdom. Overall, 169 participants (45%) had received palliative radiotherapy, and the median (IQR) prostate-specific antigen level was 146 (51-354). Follow-ups were performed for at least 12 months. INTERVENTIONS: Up to 10 cycles of docetaxel alone; docetaxel with ZA; docetaxel with a single Sr89 dose after 6 cycles; or docetaxel with both ZA and Sr89. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Primary outcomes included clinical progression-free survival (CPFS) (pain progression, skeletal-related events [SREs], or death) and cost-effectiveness. Secondary outcomes included SRE-free interval, pain progression-free interval, total SREs, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Overall, of 757 participants, 349 (46%) completed docetaxel treatment. Median (IQR) age was 68 (63-73) years. Clinical progression-free survival did not reach statistical significance for either Sr89 or ZA. Cox regression analysis adjusted for all stratification variables showed benefit of Sr89 on CPFS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-0.99; P = .03) and confirmed no effect of ZA (HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.85-1.14; P = .81); ZA had a significant effect on SRE-free interval (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65-0.95; P = .01). For OS, there was no effect of either Sr89 (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.79-1.08; P = 0.34) or ZA (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.84-1.16; P = 0.91). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Strontium-89 combined with docetaxel improved CPFS but did not improve OS, SRE-free interval, or total SREs; ZA did not improve CPFS or OS but did significantly improve median SRE-free interval and reduced total SREs by around one-third, suggesting a role as postchemotherapy maintenance therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN12808747.

Health care financing and the sustainability of health systems.

The economic crisis brought an unprecedented attention to the issue of health system sustainability in the developed world. The discussion, however, has been mainly limited to "traditional" issues of cost-effectiveness, quality of care, and, lately, patient involvement. Not enough attention has yet been paid to the issue of who pays and, more importantly, to the sustainability of financing. This fundamental concept in the economics of health policy needs to be reconsidered carefully. In a globalized economy, as the share of labor decreases relative to that of capital, wage income is increasingly insufficient to cover the rising cost of care. At the same time, as the cost of Social Health Insurance through employment contributions rises with medical costs, it imperils the competitiveness of the economy. These reasons explain why spreading health care cost to all factors of production through comprehensive National Health Insurance financed by progressive taxation of income from all sources, instead of employer-employee contributions, protects health system objectives, especially during economic recessions, and ensures health system sustainability.

Health policy making under information constraints: an evaluation of the policy responses to the economic crisis in Greece.

INTRODUCTION: Cost consolidation in the highly fragmented and inefficient Greek health care system was necessary. However, policies introduced were partly formed in a context of insufficient information. Expenditure data from a consumption point of view were lacking and the depth of the political and structural problems was of unknown magnitude to the supervisory authorities. METHODS: Drawing upon relevant literature and evidence from the newly implemented OECD System of Health Accounts, the paper evaluates the health policy responses to the economic crisis in Greece. The discussion and recommendations are also of interest to other countries where data sources are not reliable or decisions are based on preliminary data and projections. RESULTS: Between 2009 and 2012, across-the-board cuts have resulted in a decline in public health expenditure for inpatient care by 8.6%, for pharmaceuticals by 42.3% and for outpatient care by 34.6%. Further cuts are expected from the ongoing reforms but more structural changes are needed. CONCLUSION: Cost-containment was not well targeted and expenditure cuts were not always addressed to the real reasons of the pre-crisis cost explosion. Policy responses were restricted to quick and easy fiscal adjustment, ignoring the need for substantial structural reforms or individuals' right to access health care irrespective of their financial capacity. Developing appropriate information infrastructure, restructuring and consolidating the hospital sector and moving toward a tax-based national health insurance could offer valuable benefits to the system.